The financial clarity and courage you need to break free from the system — in just five minutes a week. From the Godfather of FIRE: simple investing for financial independence.
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S&P 500 Index Fund Growth Fuels Fears of Passive Investment Bubble
Published 18 days ago • 5 min read
The Simple Path to Wealth
Your roadmap to a rich, free life — in just five minutes per week.
April 28, 2026 Later this year, Jessica Collins (along with her dad, JL!) will have a new companion for you on the road to financial independence. The Simple Path to Wealthgrew from JL's advice to his daughter, and now Jessica will make it a true multi-generational affair with a new project available in stores on November 24 and for pre-order right now, wherever you buy your books!
But first, we have a favor to ask you! We're putting the finishing touches on The Simple Path to Wealth Workbook, and we'd love your help. We're looking for a small group of volunteers to serve as beta readers. Here's how it works:
If you want to participate, reply to this email and let us know. We'll select randomly from those who raise their hands.
We'll send you a private review PDF this week.
You'll fill out a form to send in your feedback by next Friday, May 8th.
Interested? Just reply to this email and let us know you're in! —Team JL
THE SIMPLE NUMBERS
By January 2025, Bloomberg Intelligencefound that "passive equity vehicles"—low-cost index funds and equivalent ETFs—"now hold roughly $13 trillion in assets and own about 13% of the entire US stock market, including more than 20% of the S&P 500." This was "fueling concerns" that lots of money flowing into passively managed funds "might distort markets by artificially pushing up stock prices and fueling volatility." But the Bloomberg investigation found no evidence this was the case. Major S&P 500 stocks favored by index funds "had similar volatility to less-owned ones and an average valuation in line with the index at about 25x price-to-earnings." The write-up also pointed out that some index funds "have active characteristics, such as an asset threshold or a selection committee," so they are not pure-passive vehicles. And finally, the authors pointed to stocks like Nvidia—which has massively outperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade—as proof that active investing is alive and well. It's just not a good idea for the vast (vast!) majority of people.
"Toughen up, learn to ignore the noise, and ride out the storm, adding still more money to your investments as you go."
Will VTSAX crash the market?
ASK JL
Q: Could the increasing dominance of passive investment strategies be artificially inflating stock market valuations, potentially leading to a market bubble, and what are the implications for market stability and long-term returns? —August T. Hi August, Of all the things to worry about regarding the market, passive investment influence is near the bottom. The main concern is that the effective pricing of individual stocks will be lost if there are not enough active traders. The main reason you keep hearing this concern is that brokers make more money from individuals if they trade stocks. In 1975, the year Jack Bogle introduced the first index fund available to individuals, the average daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange was about 18–19 million shares per day. Today, trading is active across the NYSE and other exchanges, and the daily volume ranges between 17-19 billion shares. I’m not sure what you mean by "market stability." The market has always been and will always be volatile. Enduring this is the price we must pay for the powerful returns over time. Corrections, bear markets and crashes are a normal part of the process. They are as expected as they are unpredictable. On The Simple Path, we ignore them and take advantage of the buying opportunity they present. We stay the course and keep investing. This is how you achieve those long-term returns. —JL Got a money question keeping you up at night? Reply to this email and we'll get it over to JL.
WHAT WE'RE READING
📚 Author and ex-Navy SEAL Brandon Webb is out with a blog on something many of us know all too well: "Nobody is coming to teach your kids about finance. Except you." 📚 The Wall Street Journalreports that many Americans who financed car purchases during the pandemic sales boom are now under serious debt strain. Remember JL's advice: Debt is "The Unacceptable Burden." 📚 Now that the S&P 500 is back in the neighborhood of all-time highs, Ben Carlson takes stock of what exactly that should mean to you.
THE BIG QUESTION
Do you have any doubts about your investments in index funds as their share of the market continues to grow? Reply to this email and we'll feature some of your responses in upcoming issues! Last time, we asked whether you invest in a particular company or ETF on the basis that it's the "ethical" thing to do. Here are a few of your answers... I do try to invest ethically according to my values, but I don't do that by picking individual stocks or using specific socially responsible ETFs. Instead, I invest in the S&P 500 through Wealthfront's S&P 500 Direct account, which uses Direct Indexing. This lets me exclude certain companies that don't align with my values. The management fee is 0.09%, which is higher than traditional index options like VTI or VTSAX, but I'm comfortable with that cost. My main motivation wasn't "ethical investing," however. It was the tax-loss harvesting benefits that help offset gains from selling ESPP shares and RSUs from my employer. This account makes up about 15% of my portfolio. The majority is still in VTI, so I know I'm supporting some companies I oppose, but overall, my portfolio feels a bit more in line with my values. —David T. That begs the question: Are all the other companies unethical? Feel-good investing for me is successful investing. Companies and capitalism are about adventure and success. That is what I invest in, and I feel good about it. —Sally F. After Uvalde, I decided I couldn't be a part of any system that profits from the death of our children. I don't care if my small amount of money makes no difference in how those companies or this world operates, I want no part of it. Vanguard has "ethical" ETFs that seek to index the broad group of companies minus certain ones that are screened out. They are able to do so quite efficiently, keeping expense ratios less than or equal to .1%. Let's be honest, that beats the vast majority of investments available. I switched my funds to ESGV and VSGX in lieu of VTI and VXUS. ESGV has an expense ratio of .09% vs .03% for VTI and VSGX is .10% vs .05% for VXUS. So .06% at the highest, which works out to $600 per million per year. I don't lose sleep over loss of returns and if you follow The Simple Path to Wealth and just substitute these funds, you'll get to your goals around the same time. —Allison G. SP Funds S&P 500 Sharia Industry Exclusions ETF (SPUS) is a different type of "ethical" investment. SPUS adheres to the Islamic principles of investing. Alcohol, gambling, pork, interest, and weapons are prohibited businesses under Islam. SPUS excludes S&P 500 companies involved in those industries, as well as highly leveraged companies. It invests in approximately 200 stocks. Expense ratio is 0.45%. —Abdul N.
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The financial clarity and courage you need to break free from the system — in just five minutes a week. From the Godfather of FIRE: simple investing for financial independence.
The Simple Path to Wealth Your roadmap to a rich, free life — in just five minutes per week. May 12, 2026A heartfelt thanks to the very many of you who've volunteered to serve as beta readers for The Simple Path to Wealth Workbook ahead of its release this fall! For those who are chosen to participate via the random draw, we'll get you more information soon.In the meantime, anyone and everyone is welcome to pre-order the new Simple Path companion book now! It's another great tool for staying...
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