The Simple Path to Wealth

Your roadmap to a rich, free life — in just five minutes per week.

August 4, 2026

Last week we asked how our international readers are following The Simple Path, and we received letters from dozens of countries across Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Still waiting on Antarctica, but it's a start!

If you haven't yet chimed in, please do. It will help us build out a comprehensive database of information on the International Path.

In the meantime, we're keeping things global with this week's topic: War, and whether it should change your portfolio.

THE SIMPLE NUMBERS

The United States is frequently at war.

Just since the 1950s, there was Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now the conflict in Iran, plus umpteen smaller campaigns across the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Europe, and Central and South America.

(And then there's all the other wars across the world that have destabilized regions and disrupted supply chains, even without direct U.S. participation.)

All the while, the U.S. stock market has delivered. If you'd invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 at its founding in 1957—and not a dollar since—you'd have more than $700,000 today.

SIMPLE PATH OF THE DAY

A slice of timeless wisdom from The Simple Path to Wealth:

"Toughen up, learn to ignore the noise, and ride out the storm, adding still more money to your investments as you go."

ASK JL

Q: Hey JL, I'm a follower of Robert Pape and have been watching his predictions for the Iran War since February. Both Pape and I worked at Air University for the Air Force, and though he was a professor and I a lowly librarian, I respect his projection of the current Iranian crisis and ensuing economic crisis.

With all of the current chaos, I know your recommendation is to stay the course. I agree, and I will, but as a student of 20th century history and the forever wars since Vietnam, I can see a dark potential future with a lower economic projection.

Do you have any comments or concerns? Economic, political or otherwise? I hope you and your family are well. —Brandon F.

Hi Brandon,

We are all doing well thanks, hope it is the same for you and yours.

You are correct, my advice is to stay the course. As always. It is interesting you mention the Vietnam War, as that was the crisis as I came of age. It ushered in the 1970s—the decade of going off the gold standard, severely high inflation, a stagnating economy (stagflation), and one of the worst decades on record for stocks. The decade ended with the August 13, 1979, Businessweek cover story titled, “The Death of Equities.”

All of which set the stage for one of the all-time great bull markets. Nobody was expecting that.

I started investing in 1975. When working on the new edition of The Simple Path to Wealth, I looked up the market returns over those tumultuous 50 years. The average return was a breathtaking 12.2%. This was across a series of financial crises and numerous wars. In fact, when I was working on the first edition in 2015, I ran the numbers for that 40 year period: 11.9% average annual return.

This was so striking I wrote this blog post, which I opened with:

These days the consensus view, looking out over the next few decades, seems to be we should expect more modest returns from stocks than we’ve enjoyed over the past few.
They see factors forming that look to act as a drag on what we might otherwise historically expect.

Indeed this is the opinion of my personal hero, Vanguard founder and creator of index funds Jack Bogle.

As for me, I confess to having no idea, let alone the Time Machine tantalizingly mentioned in the title.

Of course, since 2015, when those pessimistic predictions were being made and I wrote that post, the market has preformed stunningly well.

Abandoned airplane sculpture partially buried in a grassy field. — For better or worse, war is not bad for business. Or at least for stocks.

Very smart people are forever analyzing the current world, often with great insight. But when they go on to use those insights to predict what Mr. Market will do, Mr. Market rarely cooperates.

Could the current situation lead to an economic crisis and low market returns? Absolutely. But it also might not. Whatever happens, someone will have predicted it. That person will be lionized—and no more able to repeat the feat than the person who happens to pick winning lottery numbers.

That said, my take is that several of the current administration’s moves give me pause. It is hard to see how policies such as expelling large numbers of needed workers, imposing ever-changing tariffs, or entering this war with Iran benefits the economy. Back in February I wrote this post. In it, you can read about the small changes I’ve made in response.

The United States will very likely remain a world power with a dynamic economy for years to come, and I continue to hold most of my assets (by far) in US stocks and bonds. But damage is being done, and cracks have appeared.

Hope this helps!

—JL

Got a money question keeping you up at night? Reply to this email and we'll get it over to JL.

WHAT WE'RE READING

📚 JL enjoyed this post from Craig Shapiro at the Collaborative Fund on "Philanthropy's other third wave."

📚 Speaking of JL posts, he's back in the blogging game! He rounded out July with a reminder about "The Power of Self-Cleansing."

📚 For those seeking 401(k) Envy, the Wall Street Journal has a new report on the most generous employer retirement plans in America.

THE BIG QUESTION

If you live outside the U.S., how do you follow The Simple Path? Do you invest in mutual funds local to your country or region? Have you found a way to invest in Vanguard funds or ETFs?

Reply to this email and we'll feature some of your responses in upcoming issues!

Last time, we asked how folks outside the U.S. are following The Simple Path. Here are a few of your answers...

I live in Brazil. I invest in stocks and bonds local to my country. I also began investing abroad, first with individual stocks. Now I'm adding VTI to the mix. To do so, I've opened an account with Interactive Brokers (IB)—all done online. The process now is quite straightforward. I convert and transfer money from my Brazilian bank account to IB using Wise (formerly Transferwise) with whom IB has easy integration. Totally doable (if you live in Brazil) and for me an important strategy to diversify my portfolio with the US market. —Chris B.

I live in Tel Aviv, Israel, so I don't invest in U.S.-based Vanguard funds due to tax inefficiency and inheritance tax. Instead, I invest in Invesco global index funds, domiciled in Ireland but trading on many stock exchanges including my local Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. 90% of my equities allocation is in MXWO tracking developed countries, and 10% of my equities allocation in MXFS for emerging markets. Simple as that. —Zvi R.

I have a nine year old and six year old and am based in Scotland. We have a junior ISA (Individual Savings Account) set up for them both with a lump sum and a direct debit monthly. We have invested in the Vanguard global all cap index. —Tom L.

First of all, thanks for everything you do. I'm living in Germany. I'm 44 years old. I made some money after I sold a small company, and I took all that money and invested it in the MSCI World Index. Yes, in Germany you have access to ETF funds. The tax system is a little bit different, I guess. The fee structure should be about the same as with the Vanguard funds. So yes, there is access to low-cost index funds, and a lot of people in my network are doing exactly that. —Nico R.

I initially invested in Satrix MSCI World, and then Satrix MSCI ACWI. These are both rand-denominated and produce South African Revenue Service-compliant tax certificates annually, so they involve the least admin. Satrix MSCI ACWI has a total investment cost of 0.35% and the Satrix NOW platform fee is 0.50%.

More recently, I opened an Interactive Brokers account in the USA, from which I purchase the Irish Vanguard FTSE All World ETF via the London Stock Exchange. IB has no platform fee and the TER for the Vanguard ETF is 0.14%. The main cost is converting ZAR to USD and the international transfer to the US. —Len Y.

I live in Singapore and I use IBKR (International Brokers) to invest in VT and VTI. I'm Taiwanese, so I also invest in Taiwanese ETFs like 0050. Not sure how it compares to VTSAX, but it's been reliable so far. —Cynthia L.

I am located in Austria and I find that investing in Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (VWCE) is the best way to replicate The Simple Path. Although it does not focus on the US (allocation is 60% U.S.) I think it stays true to the idea. Steady investing into the best companies who do perform quite well, although to be fair it's only been around for seven years now. —Elias S.

I'm from Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada. I use Questrade and invest in VUN—a Vanguard ETF that captures the entire U.S. stock market. Also VGRO, which is 80% stock and 20% fixed. —Bill A.

For Switzerland, the best way is via IBKR + VT ETF. —Marc P.

As an Iranian, 23-year-old temporary resident (student) in the Netherlands,
I have opened a Trading 212 account, which was the easiest and most convenient to accomplish. (There are other platforms, like Degiro, available here). I buy my VSTAX in the form of VWCE. It’s the easiest thing to do. I haven’t looked into the bonds, or the more complicated stuff like the Roth IRA equivalents here, so I cannot say much about those. I want to express how useful I think this database will be for people. It was a bit of a hassle for me to figure out VWCE, and I live in probably the most U.S.-style country in Europe.
I hope the best for you all and please say hi to JL for me. —Kiara B.

Vanguard offers UCITS ETFs, domiciled in Ireland, which has a tax treaty with the U.S. This is efficient for non-U.S. tax residents because it reduces the withholding tax for foreigners holding U.S. assets and avoids the issue of U.S. estate tax. Vanguard UCITS are easily accessible through brokerages all over the world. I am a Hong Kong tax resident, I buy and hold Vanguard UCITS ETFs listed on the London stock exchange through Interactive Brokers. The main downside is that the range of ETFs are not as wide as those domiciled in the U.S. But for a simple portfolio, it more than suffices. —Trevor N.