The Simple Path to Wealth

Your roadmap to a rich, free life — in just five minutes per week.

November 11, 2025

"I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened."

—Mark Twain

THE SIMPLE NUMBERS

The average length of a bear market for the S&P 500 — a prolonged downturn of 20% or more — is 340 days, according to Yardeni Research, or just over 11 months. It takes on average around 2.5 years for the index to return to its previous peak levels after that kind of slump.

Stocks see average losses of 35% in a bear market, Hartford Funds reports, while they gain 112% during bull markets.

SIMPLE PATH OF THE DAY

A slice of timeless wisdom from The Simple Path to Wealth:

"I tell my daughter that during her 60-odd years of being an investor, she can expect to see 2008-level financial meltdowns every 25 years or so. That’s two or three of these economic 'end of the world' events coming her way — and yours."

ASK JL

Q: Are there times you have doubts about the Simple Path? More specifically, are there any situations you can think of where you’d pull your money out of the stock market all together? We are in some weird times right now. —Michael S.

Hi Michael,

No.

I’ve crafted the Simple Path over 50 years of investing, which included many weird times. I’ve explored many other options in that time. This is the one I settled upon 25 years ago. It has served me well, including through wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, two major crashes and one of the worst decades for stocks in history.

That said, it requires a capitalist economy in which people are allowed to privately own assets, create companies/products/services, and are allowed to benefit from the wealth they create. Humans thrive under such a system, and that creates the wealth they and those around them enjoy.

Were this system to go away, the Simple Path would have no home. But even countries like China and Russia have recognized the benefits of allowing private ownership.

Other than that, it would take a civilization-ending event to derail this plan: an asteroid hit, like the one that took out the dinosaurs; a major nuclear war; AI deciding it really doesn’t need to keep us around; a zombie apocalypse; advanced aliens herding us into feed lots.

But at that point, no strategy will work, and your investments will be the least of your worries.

—JL

Got a money question keeping you up at night? Reply to this email and we'll get it over to JL.

A bright comet with a long tail in starry sky — If a meteor hits, you'll have bigger problems.

WHAT WE'RE READING

📚 Over at A Wealth of Common Sense this past weekend, Ben Carlson wrote on how "bull markets make you feel smarter than you really are" and "bear markets make you feel dumber than you really are."

📚 Buying a home is, as JL Collins puts it, "an expensive indulgence." Yet it's still a goal for many of us, despite soaring prices, and last year Mr. Money Mustache dug into the details of how it might still be achievable.

📚 "Some people insist that achieving FI just isn't possible, and that the advice is bogus," JL writes in. "Others, like the 100 people in my book Pathfinders, listen and go ahead and do it. Then there are stories like this."

THE BIG QUESTION

Have you ever sold off your stock holdings out of fear that a market crash was around the corner?

Reply to this email and we'll feature some of your responses in upcoming issues!

Last time, we asked whether you've had success convincing the young people in your life to start saving and investing. Here are a few of your answers...

When my kids began earning their own money in their teen years, my wife and I wanted them to max out their retirement contributions. So, we set up a system where they contribute 50% of what they earn to their Roths and we match 50%. My 20-year-old daughter is nearing $50,000 in her retirement account, and my 17-year-old son has about $30,000 saved up to this point.

We are in a position where we can help them early on in their lives, so they don't have to worry about money and retirement as they grow older. Once they are out of school and have real jobs earning real money, then it will be up to them to continue to max out their retirement (and go above if they are willing). They are lightyears ahead of where I started, and they are enthusiastic about what they have been able to save. It builds a solid base and gets them in the habit of saving without thinking about it. Thanks so much for all you do! —Eric S.

We've taught my teenage son to be frugal, and to his credit, when he buys something, he shops for deals. He also splits his chore and allowance money between spending and savings. I haven't done a deep dive with him on investing, but I have stressed how important it is when the subject of money comes up.

I recently purchased a copy of The Simple Path to Wealth so I could reread it and then give it to my son when the time is right, probably when he starts working. I discovered The Simple Path in middle age and profited from it handsomely. I want him to benefit from those strategies for his entire life. —Roger S.

We bought The Simple Path to Wealth for our three children (ages 20, 22, and 24) last Christmas. But, that's not all! We told the kids that we'd take them to dinner three times to discuss the book, and I would create quizzes based on the concepts in the book. If they passed all three quizzes, we'd give them $250 each to use to open a Fidelity brokerage account and begin investing (in FSKAX).

So far, one of the three has completed the book and the quizzes, and I believe the other two will once they are in a quieter season. Thank you for all you are doing to help people of all ages gain financial freedom! —Deb E.